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Estonian property market sees 33% drop in transactions YoY; No Immediate Revival Expected Despite ECB Holding Off Rate Hikes

Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) pausing interest rate increases, experts foresee no quick recovery for Estonia’s flagging housing market. Since last autumn, the ECB has raised rates ten times to counter inflation. This has discouraged new lending and affected existing loan holders, states Risto Vähi, an analyst at Uus Maa.

Year-on-year data reveals one-third fewer property transactions, confirms Vähi. Mihkel Eliste of Arco Vara has observed a declining trend since the spring-summer period of 2022. He notes the apartment market is roughly at 2015-2016 levels. For high-end housing, the market in some areas has regressed to 2013 or 2014 conditions.

Both Eliste and Vähi concur that an easing of interest rates will not spur a fast drop in credit costs or stimulate the housing market. Furthermore, the liquidity for residences priced above €250,000 has weakened, while the secondary market for apartments remains competitive.

Vähi remains cautiously optimistic that rate hikes have plateaued but does not anticipate a significant decline anytime soon.

A comparison of online shopping baskets revealed a surprising result: food prices in major retail chains have dropped to levels seen a year ago.

For instance, a shopping cart at Rimi costs less now than in the past 11 months; last year, it was over €70, and now it’s under €63. Barbora’s cart is also €6 cheaper than last September. Data is collected on the 10th of each month. Prisma still hasn’t returned to its previous year’s prices and currently offers a cart that’s €5 more expensive. Selver’s prices are €2 higher than 11 months ago.

Rimi is experimenting with its pricing. Throughout the year, Prisma has offered the most stable and affordable prices. Barbora’s food prices rose until this April and then decreased. Rimi’s prices have fluctuated as they search for the right pricing strategy. Selver consistently has the highest prices.

Regardless of the general price level of the retail chain, all have returned to last autumn’s price level. Bread products have been the most stable in price across all chains.